TERRY SCHOLEY WEATHER SERVICE
1 Nursery Close
Radcliffe on Trent
Notts NG12 2JD
Telephone 0115 933 5567
Mobile 0797 018 4241
E Mail terry.scholey@virginmedia.com
September 2012 – final update.
General Comments:
A drier and warmer than average September seems likely particularly over central, eastern and southern areas, with just brief cooler intervals occasionally ‘feeding down’ from the north. It could also be a sunnier than normal month, especially over England and Wales. Current weather patterns are suggesting that on the whole the first and the third weeks should provide the driest conditions, with changeable weather most likely towards mid-month and at the end.
There is still some doubt as to the pressure pattern around mid-September, as several key years in the past came up with different results. One particular September of interest was that of 1879, that like this year followed one of the wettest summers on record. It is also a particularly good lunar match and to some extent is close to the current phase of the solar cycle.
Confidence is medium to high, with the timing of weather events likely to be within a couple of days. The next update will be the mid-September to mid-October prediction.
September 1st to 6th: Predominantly dry, particularly in central and southern areas, with some warm sunshine although cloud amounts will vary. Breezier and more unsettled over Scotland particularly the north and west and at times over Northern Ireland, with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures will be close to normal in the north say 15 to 17C by day, but above average in the south and east with some very warm afternoons when 23 to 25C could be reached. The nights generally will be mild, with minimum values mostly between 7 and 13C.
September 7th to 9th: A few showers perhaps over north and east Scotland at first, otherwise staying mainly dry with perhaps some quite sunny days. Scotland and Northern Ireland should also be noticeably brighter, but it could be somewhat cooler and fresher with chillier nights. Top temperatures in the north should be 13 to 16C and in the south 18 to 20C, with minimum values say 5 to 10C giving a risk of ground frost mostly in the north.
September 10th to 15th: Some intervals of warm sunshine but probably increasingly hazy, with more in the way of cloud and early mist or fog patches. Also an increased risk of showers particularly towards mid-month, when some locally could be heavy perhaps giving thunder. Feeling warmer or milder, with top temperatures 16 to 18C in the north and 19 to 24C in the south. The nights should also be milder, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 8 to 13C.
September 16th to 20th: Showers should clear leaving most parts with a finer, mainly dry interval giving sunny spells. There will be patchy cloud, but pleasantly warm afternoon’s where you have sunny spells. Top temperatures should be 16 to 21C but with chillier that could see minimum values between say 6 and 11C.
September 21st to 25th: Gradually becoming unsettled and breezier, particularly in the north and west. The east and south however could see tastes of ‘Indian Summer’ after some misty mornings, before here too it probably become unsettled with some locally heavy showers later. Maximum temperatures should be 15 to 18C in the north and west, but perhaps as high 23 to 25C towards the south east for a time. Milder nights should see minimum temperatures mostly between 9 and 14C.
September 26th to 30th: Could see a sudden change too much cooler weather from the north-west, after probably a few showers in the north and east at first. It should be mainly dry again however for a while with sunny spells, before wet and windy weather perhaps ‘sweeps’ in from the west at month end. Daytime temperatures may struggle to reach 12 to 14C in the north and 15 to 17C in the south. Colder nights for a while could result mostly ground frost, with minimum values between say 0 and 6C.
31st August 2012
Old Park Farm Garden Holders Association 